В рамках реализации Меморандума о сотрудничестве между Академией и Региональным Центром ООН по превентивной дипломатии (далее — Центр) и по приглашению Спецпредставителя Генерального секретаря ООН по вопросам превентивной дипломатии в ЦА Посла П.Драганова делегация Академии в составе директора Института дипломатии А.Аязбекова и руководителя Центра международного партнерства Ш.Елькеевой приняла участие в работе международного семинара «Роль женщин и молодежи в предотвращении конфликтов в Центральной Азии», организованном Центром 19-20 июня 2017 г. в г.Алматы.
В работе форума приняли участие П.Драганов — Спецпредставитель Генерального Секретаря ООН, Дудар Жакенов — Заместитель главы Представительства МИД Казахстана в Алматы, Педро Пабло Виллануева — Представитель ЮНФПА в Казахстане, Наргиз Азизова, и.о. Руководителя Многостранового Офиса ООН-Женщины в Казахстане, представители 10 государств.
А.Аязбеков выступил с докладом о геополитической обстановке вокруг Центральной Азии, угрозах и вызовах безопасности, а также подходах Республики Казахстан к реализации Резолюции Совета Безопасности ООН 1325.
Ш.Елькеева выступила с докладом на сессии «Уроки из региональных конфликтов для снижения конфликтности в регионе» (текст прилагается*).
Центр международного партнерства
*Speech by Sh.Yelkeyeva, Head of International Department of the Academy of Public Administration under the President of Kazakhstan on the session 2 “Lessons learned from the regional conflicts”
Dear madam moderator,
Thank you so much for the opportunity to share with you some thoughts regarding to the issue is being considered at the present session. Since we are required to examine the regional conflicts let me please put on the table some conclusions we made in 2015 at the Oxford University where I had an honor to conduct research on ‘Causes and consequences of the Arab spring for the post – soviet space’.
‘The Arab spring’ as a political phenomenon has become one of the most important events of the current decade. Its consequences have had significant impact on many geopolitical processes far outside the Arab world and for sure – on the level of the threats in Central Asia.
Undoubtedly, the Arab Spring would have been virtually impossible if it wasn’t for a number of factors that increased the level of public dissatisfaction (relatively low standards of living; rapid growth of the population; high rate of educated jobless youth; conflicts among the elite; weak political and economic institutions). However, the mechanisms and political instruments of regime change in the 18 states of the Arab world within a single year point to the strong role played by geopolitical reasons for this phenomenon.
‘The Arab spring’ took place in the Middle East and the Maghreb – the region where more than 60% of the world’s oil and 40% of the world’s natural gas reserves are concentrated. [1] Consumption of these non-renewable natural resources is growing steadily and serves as one of the important early indicators of economic growth and development. According to BP, national crude oil resources will run out in the USA — in 12 years, in Iraq — in 100 years, in Iran — in 70 years, in Kazakhstan — in 70 years, in Russia — in 22 years, and in Saudi Arabia — in 67 years.[2] Thus, between 60 and 150 years accelerated extraction of the world’s oil and gas resources will lead to their total depletion.
The struggle among geopolitical leaders for spheres of influence, given the imminent exhaustion of energy resources and communications for their transportation, is a key driving force of global political processes. The fight for hydrocarbons in the Middle East and North Africa as well as in Central Asia (Caspian Sea) is an important episode in this clash of interests.
Thus, at least 4 global stakeholders declared the existence of areas of national interest in Central Asia and their willingness to fight for dominance in them, moreover – some of them even by the military means.
We also believe that an important commitment of some global stakeholders to establish of democratic regimes and to fight against religious extremism serve as another factor for the inclusion of Central Asia in the area of national interest for global international centres of influence. For our northern neighbour the decisive factor is to maintain influence in the border areas, preventing pro-Western institutions (NATO and the EU) from getting closer to its borders. From the positions just described, Central Asia enters the zone of interests of three nuclear powers.
The establishment of a real democracy which is proclaimed as the Arab spring purpose, is a very controversial question that depends on the specific political features of the country. Six years after the Arab spring, it can be said with confidence that none of the 18 countries in which the Arab spring has taken place have become a democracy. New governments such as ISIL cause much more destabilization in the region than their overthrown predecessors.
But the threat of further radicalization of the Middle East has been and will be a universal cause for western invasion into the region at any time, under the pretext of fighting extremists. ‘The Arab spring’ resulted in enormous losses to the regional economies as a whole, and the oil and gas sectors, in particular. According to the British bank HSBC, the economy of the Middle East lost 800 billion dollars by the end of 2014 as a result of the «Arab spring» events.[3]
It can be said with confidence that the objectives of weakening or getting rid of the forces that used to control the region in which 60% of world reserves of energy resources are concentrated have been achieved.
We are witnessing sure demonstration of the status of a great power that violates international law for the sake of its national interest far outside of their border.
And as a consequence — the post-Soviet space including Central Asia serves as an arena for the application of controversial political technologies. Some of regional states demonstrate a careful balancing between the interests of the great powers while others choose a radical approach.
The policy implemented by Kazakhstan of smoothing the balance between the interests of the superpowers — a low-key approach to solving demographic, linguistic and economic problems – has proved superior compared to the radical approaches implemented in Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine where ignoring of the national interests of the strategic partners resulted in enormous lost among civilians and breaking of the territorial integrity.
[1] BP report, available at http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
[2] BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June, 2009, ibid
[3] Arab Spring to cost Mideast $800 bn, available at http://www.worldbulletin.net/haber/120294/arab-spring-to-cost-mideast-800-bln .HSBC report on October 10, 2013 considers both real economic loss, and the slowed-down GDP growth and decrease in the volume of investment.